Live cattle futures Tuesday fell across the board even as wholesale beef prices climbed sharply, with Choice boxes crossing $400 ahead of the July 4 holiday weekend. The front-month Jun 26 contract settled at $255.150, down $0.675, while the benchmark Aug 26 contract closed at $246.000, off $1.350.
Live Cattle Futures Tuesday: Contract-by-Contract Losses
Losses in live cattle ranged from 67 cents to $1.35 across most active contracts. Oct 26 live cattle settled at $239.750, down $1.250.
Feeder cattle were hit harder. Aug 26 feeders closed at $368.150, down $2.275. Sep 26 feeders settled at $366.975, off $1.850, and Oct 26 feeders finished at $364.600, down $1.425. The day’s feeder losses ran from 42 cents to $2.27.
The National Beef Wire showed the CME Feeder Cattle Index at $367.06 on June 21. The index rose to $373.00 by June 22, a gain of $2.44 on the day, per the snippet.
Boxed Beef Surges on Pre-Holiday Retailer Demand
Wholesale beef moved sharply higher in Tuesday’s PM session. Choice boxes rose $4.25 to $400.31, and Select gained $5.47 to $381.06, as retailers stocked up ahead of the July 4 weekend. The Choice/Select spread stood at $19.25.
The USDA AMS Boxed Beef PM Report for June 22 showed Choice cuts moving 55.80 loads (2,231,941 pounds) against just 4.77 loads (190,665 pounds) of Select. Ground beef accounted for another 10.07 loads (402,977 pounds). The Primal Loin Choice cutout value stood at $507.75 versus $452.88 for Select on June 22, a spread of $54.87 at the primal level.
Cash trade has yet to develop this week. Sales crept up to $258-260 last week, leaving the market without a fresh cash reference to anchor futures.
Slaughter Numbers and Weekly Supply
USDA estimated Tuesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter at 110,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 216,000 head. That was up 8,000 from the previous week but 12,895 head below the same week a year ago. The USDA AMS Daily Livestock and Poultry Slaughter report for June 23 confirmed current-period estimates.
Beef production for the week ending June 20 came in at 469.6 million pounds, according to the USDA AMS Weekly Meat Production Report. Total red meat output under federal inspection for that week reached 990.3 million pounds, 0.4% below the prior week but 0.4% above the same week a year earlier. Cumulative beef and red meat production year-to-date ran 2.8% below the prior year’s pace.
The year-over-year slaughter deficit and tighter cumulative production reflect ongoing cattle supply constraints, even as packer margins benefit from firm wholesale prices.
What to Watch Next
Cash trade development mid-week will be the key directional signal. If southern and northern plains feedlots hold out for $260-plus on a thinly traded Tuesday, the delayed cash market could either validate futures’ weakness or force a snap-back in the back half of the week.
The USDA AMS Boxed Beef Morning Report will continue to track primal cutout values as the holiday-week supply push plays out. Choice at $400 going into July 4 sets a high bar; whether retail demand sustains that level into next week will shape the August live cattle contract’s next move.
