Broadcom Analyst Price Targets Rise as AVGO Drops 20%

Broadcom analyst price targets moved sharply higher in the days after the company’s Q2 FY2026 earnings report, even as AVGO shares fell roughly 20% from pre-earnings highs above $475 to a low near $375.

The disconnect between stock price and analyst sentiment comes down to one thing: the AI guidance miss. Times of India reported that Broadcom’s full-year FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue guidance of $56 billion came in just below the Street’s average estimate of $57.6 billion. For a stock that had run more than 15% in the week before the print, a guidance miss of any size was enough to trigger selling.

Broadcom Analyst Price Targets: The Numbers

Of the analysts tracked by MarketBeat who updated their views after the report, more than 10 raised their targets. Only one cut: Timothy Arcuri of UBS, who trimmed by $5 to $485. The revised average target among post-earnings updates sits near $515, well above the $490.13 consensus, implying upside of roughly 30% from current levels.

The range is wide. DA Davidson and Royal Bank of Canada hold the lowest updated targets at $400, though both firms raised their figures, by 6.7% and 11.1%, respectively. At the top end, JPMorgan’s Harlan Sur lifted his target from $500 to $580, keeping an Overweight rating. That is the most bullish post-earnings target on the board.

Ratings are equally lopsided. AVGO carries 30 Buy ratings, three Holds, and zero Sells.

The JPMorgan Question That Moved the Stock

Sur’s $580 target increase is notable partly because his question on the earnings call contributed to the sell-off. He asked CEO Hock Tan whether Broadcom’s 18-month AI revenue backlog, covering the second half of FY2026 through the first half of FY2027, sits at $200 billion or better. The math behind the question: Broadcom has guided for $37 billion in AI revenue across the final two quarters of FY2026, and $100 billion-plus for full-year FY2027, totaling $137 billion. Sur was pushing Tan to implicitly endorse a figure $63 billion higher.

Tan declined. He held the FY2027 AI outlook at over $100 billion, telling investors the company “will exceed very easily $100 billion in 2027.” That language is roughly consistent with what Tan said on the Q1 FY2026 earnings call in March, when he described the $100 billion figure as “significantly in excess.” The market had apparently been pricing in a raise. It did not get one.

Sur raised his Broadcom analyst price target anyway, by 16%, suggesting he viewed the underlying demand trajectory as intact even without the explicit guidance bump.

What the Underlying Numbers Show

Strip away the guidance optics and the Q2 FY2026 earnings transcript shows a record quarter. Consolidated revenue hit $22.2 billion, up 48% year-on-year for the period ended May 3, 2026. The $56 billion full-year AI guidance represents roughly 180% growth versus fiscal 2025.

Near-term momentum is also strong. Q3 AI semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $16 billion, up more than 200% year-on-year. Broadcom has also secured $30 billion in AI semiconductor bookings, a figure that sits well ahead of current shipments.

Demand is concentrated at the top of the AI ecosystem. Tan confirmed on the Q2 call that Broadcom’s six core custom chip customers include Anthropic, Google, Meta, and OpenAI. Anthropic alone placed an order for $10 billion in AI chips as of December 2025.

After two quarters of FY2026, Broadcom has already generated $19 billion in AI revenue. Reaching the $56 billion full-year target requires $37 billion in the back half, a run rate that would have been unthinkable two years ago but now sits firmly in the guidance range.

The stock’s next real test is whether Q3 AI revenue, guided at $16 billion with 200%-plus year-on-year growth, arrives on track. A print in line with or above that figure removes the narrative that the Q2 guide was a soft signal. A miss reopens it.